Climate experts from the National Weather Service have issued a scary new update on the seasonal moisture forecast for our area through April.
According to Chris Smallcomb, NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist, we continue to have high confidence in dry, or at least well below normal precipitation, through January 26th as a ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the west coast.
“This blocks heavy precipitation storms from impacting California and Nevada,” explains Smallcomb, “We could see light showers late next week for a weak storm but nothing substantial – and confidence in that happening is low.”
The weather agency’s latest climate outlooks – which take into account global weather and ocean patterns – are now favoring below normal precipitation for California and western Nevada in the February-April period. However forecast confidence in that outcome is only medium so the NWS says there is still a chance we could see some big storms during that timeframe.
The US Drought Monitor was also updated today, the biggest change being the expansion of Extreme Drought (D3 category) across most of the Sierra, northern and central California, and far western Nevada. This is the 2nd from the highest drought category. The Drought Monitor takes into account precipitation deficits and local impacts to calculate drought categories.
Attached are screen captures of the new climate outlook and the drought monitor. For the precipitation outlook – the numbers refer to the percent chances of above or below normal for the February-April period as a whole. Areas in white (EC) mean equal chances of above/near/below normal.
